Less sprawl after all? UCF study offers ideas
By midcentury,
By Vicki McClure
Think
of a latter-day
That's what
But a new study, to be unveiled
Thursday, offers a path to a different future.
Unlike some recent reports, which
focused solutions for specific regions or the perils for the state if growth
goes unchecked, "An Alternative Future" shows what
The population growth expected
during the next half-century could be accommodated, the study maintains, on far
less land and for far less money if government officials:
Construct a high-speed-rail
system connecting
Develop local rail routes serving
each high-speed-rail stop.
Change land-use regulations to
allow developments that mix high-density housing with retail and office spaces.
Buy 8.5 million acres of land
critical for wildlife survival as well as aquifer and wetland protection.
Conserve more water and encourage
less use in the home.
Building statewide and local rail
systems would cost less than building new and expanded highways to serve
sprawl, according to the study, commissioned by the
The proposed conservation would
total about $203 billion for land that serves as wildlife habitat, replenishes
groundwater, filters pollution, controls floods and abuts existing preserves.
The effort could be paid for by the $521 billion that local governments would
save by not building the infrastructure required to support uncontrolled
development -- namely miles of roads, sewers and water lines, the study said.
"We think it's doable if
there is the political will," said Linda Chapin, the center's director.
"If we don't start protecting these lands, they will be gone. In the next
10 years it will be over."
Regional leaders from government,
business, nonprofit organizations and education will attend the four-hour
meeting at
The study was produced by a team
of graduate students with the
The student group did not
consider curbing development as an option. It did warn that the state's water
supply required urgent and immediate attention, saying "drastic
measures" would need to be adopted to meet the projected population growth
in a sustainable way.
To keep residential demand for
water at its current level, for example, the group said all new homes and 95
percent of existing ones would need to have low-flow appliances and
rainwater-collection systems for tasks such as watering lawns. It also
recommended increasing the use of treated wastewater for landscaping
irrigation.
Chris Sweazy,
a lead hydrologist for the South Florida Water Management District, said
providing water for the population boom expected in just the next two decades
is going to be a challenge.
No new water permits for homes or
businesses, for instance, will be issued after 2013 for the Floridan
Aquifer -- the near-exclusive supply for much of
Conservation is the easiest and
cheapest solution, he said. Reclaiming wastewater in innovative ways, such as
the Orange County/Orlando partnership that delivers treated water to homes,
businesses and farms, and stores the rest in basins to be filtered back into
the aquifer, also will help. But new facilities to treat surface water for
drinking will also be needed as part of the long-term solution, he said.
"Cheap water is
limited," Sweazy said. "There needs to be a
very-thought-out use of all sources of water."
Perhaps an even a greater
obstacle to ensuring a greener, more pedestrian-friendly future is convincing
political leaders to make large investments in conservation land soon in
exchange for infrastructure savings during the next 50-plus years.
The student group estimated that
building infrastructure to service newly developed land costs about $100,000
per acre. By comparison, land targeted for environmental protection is valued
at about $10,000 an acre at today's prices, but its worth is projected to more
than triple by midcentury -- if it doesn't disappear
under concrete.
To protect key parcels near
existing preservation tracts cheaply, the group urged purchasing them soon,
making the first 15 years of the plan the most expensive.
Charles Lee, advocacy director
for Audubon of Florida, favors using the free market to help achieve the goals.
Areas such as
The ability to construct more
homes and apartments per acre tends to make growth more profitable for
developers. Residential densities become a commodity that can be bought, sold and
regulated to curb sprawl and direct development into the urban core.
"That is a major way we
think this should proceed: harnessing the economic energy
of development itself and letting that become the agent for the
conservation," Lee said.
Vicki McClure can be reached
at vmcclure@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5540.