MIAMI HERALD
April 29, 2007

Questions and answers about the drought

http://www.miamiherald.com/569/story/90373.html

Judging by the lush lawns, it may seem hard to believe Miami-Dade and Broward counties need rain. Here are 10 key questions about a drought that has put South Florida under the toughest water restrictions in history. The answers aren't simple.

Q With rainfall totals slightly above average, why do homeowners in Weston, Coral Gables and other South Florida neighborhoods have to cut back on sprinkling their landscaping to twice a week?

A Miami-Dade, Broward and part of Palm Beach sit atop the Biscayne Aquifer, the primary source of the area's drinking water. But the urban southeast coast still depends on a complicated supply labyrinth stretching from Orlando to Key West.

To a large extent, everybody is hooked into the same plumbing -- a flood-control and water-delivery system that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers constructed in the 1950s and '60s.

Water flows south from the Kissimmee River basin into Lake Okeechobee, where it's pooled behind a towering earthen dike and rationed out by water managers, who move it around the region through about 1,900 miles of canals and more than 200 gates and pumps.

So if the state's biggest, thirstiest counties sprinkle less, there will be less need to tap the lake to replenish populated coastal areas and more water left to protect things more difficult and more expensive to replace than sod and shrubbery.

For starters, a deeply dried-out Everglades could be exposed to muck fires that can destroy the soil that supports the entire ecosystem. And coastal well fields that supply hundreds of thousands of people could be tainted by intruding seawater usually kept out by high freshwater levels.

Yards alone slurp six out of every 10 gallons in the suburban supply.

''If you think about the volume of water that millions of people put on their lawns, you can start to draw the system down and create problems elsewhere,'' said Chip Merriam, deputy executive director of the South Florida Water Management District.

That's one reason the district is considering year-round watering restrictions.

When restrictions are followed, which isn't always the case, they can produce fast and measurable effects, said hydrologist Scott Prinos, who monitors groundwater levels across the region for the U.S. Geological Survey.

''I can see spots where they've really had an impact,'' Prinos said. ``As soon as they decide water restrictions for an area, things that were heading down all of a sudden level off.''

 

Q Why does the water level in Lake Okeechobee matter if Miami-Dade and Broward have a full Biscayne Aquifer?

A For better or worse, the flood-control levee and canal system has converted the giant lake into the region's water barrel. It's the main source for surrounding communities and the state's sugar industry, but also gets dipped into from time to time to resupply coastal cities to the south.

The water is gravity-fed through three large canals at the south end of the lake into three marshy conservation areas stretching from north of the Tamiami Trail in western Miami-Dade to western Palm Beach County. From there, the water can be channeled to recharge local well fields when groundwater levels decline.

With the level of Lake Okeechobee headed for a record low, gravity alone cannot push water down those canals. The water district has had to install special pumps, but even they can't send enough to supply half of the amount that surrounding farms normally get. So if Miami, Fort Lauderdale and other coastal cities start sucking too much water from the Biscayne Aquifer, there is nothing left in the water barrel to replenish it.

''The issue we're facing is there is no Okeechobee water for the coast,'' said John Mulliken, director of water supply planning for the district. ``The lake is down that low, and it's just not going to be there.''

 

Q Two years ago, everyone was concerned that Lake Okeechobee's level was too high, and now it's too low. What happened?

A What happened is that the Corps and the water district, which co-manage the lake, both ordered releases that dropped the level several feet during the last year -- most of it in anticipation of tropical deluges that never came.

The lake isn't supposed to stay at one depth. The Corps tries to let it rise and fall within ''natural'' seasonal zones -- a long-debated, repeatedly tweaked balancing act intended to ensure an adequate water supply for the region, keep the lake's plants and renowned fishery healthy, and absorb hurricane flooding without exposing the aging dike to the risk of a breach from high water.

After four hurricanes in 2004 filled the lake to nearly 18 feet above sea level -- the edge of the danger zone for dike failure -- the Corps dumped water as quickly as it could. Still, by the June 1 start of the 2005 hurricane season, the lake remained more than a foot above a target height of 14 feet.

By the end of that intense storm season, the lake shot up again, peaking just above 17 feet.

Facing the forecast of a third straight hectic hurricane season, the Corps again lowered the lake, but this time under a ''temporary deviation'' from regular operations that allowed the agency to dump water twice as fast. The lake hit 14 feet by mid-April of last year.

That same month, the district also asked for the first of a series of smaller but steady releases down the Caloosahatchee River to reverse rising salinity levels in sensitive Gulf estuaries. Water-supply deliveries and daily evaporation consumed still more water.

The result: On June 1, 2006, the lake sat close to 12.5 feet, a foot and a half below the Corps' hurricane-season target. But the season proved a bust for hurricanes striking Florida, and lake levels have gone mostly downhill since.

That foot and a half of water -- hundreds of billions of gallons -- wouldn't be enough to offset the drought, but it could be a source of emergency relief.

 

Q So, are the state and federal agencies partly to blame for the crisis?

A The two agencies defend their decisions to drop lake levels, saying they made the best calls they could with the information in hand at the time. They blame Lake Okeechobee's woes largely on whims of nature and the inexact science of long-term weather prediction.

''As water managers, we absolutely cannot forecast the future,'' said Susan Sylvester, operations manager for the water district. ``We have no control over Mother Nature.''

But public, political and engineering concerns about the 143-mile-long dike -- all of which were elevated by the 2005 levee failures in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina -- also clearly played a key role. The 70-year-old structure was, said Merriam, ``this risk out there.''

Last May, the state released a sobering consultants' report that concluded the dike was at high risk of failure from hurricane flooding, making it a ''grave and imminent danger'' to 40,000 people who live near its southern rim.

In July, one Corps official told an interagency group that the lake should be kept below 17.25 feet in the interest of public safety. The Corps is revising plans for repairs that could take decades.

John Zediak, chief of water management for the Corps' district headquartered in Jacksonville, said the agency long understood the dike's limitations and had factored in safety margins to deal with powerful, wet hurricanes.

Looking back now, he said, ``People tie all of these things together and come to their own conclusions.''

But the criticism wasn't only in hindsight.

Environmentalists, anglers and other critics, who have long fought for lower lake levels that help plants, fish and wildlife, objected to the volume of dumping because the surge of polluted runoff from cattle pastures and farms trashed estuaries of the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie rivers at either side of the state.

Sugar growers and farmers also urged caution, contending that the agencies were dumping too much too fast. It was the same worry that farmers expressed in the spring of 2000, when water managers lowered the lake a foot to revive a drowning ecosystem as the region was entering the last big drought.

''History is now repeating itself,'' said Judy Sanchez, spokeswoman for U.S. Sugar Corp.

Before the current drought, the Corps was pondering dropping average lake levels about a foot year-round, aiming to let it rise and fall 12 to 15 feet seasonally. But the water shortage, which could come with high environmental and economic costs, may increase pressure to hold it higher.

Zediak said there has been ''some second-guessing on our part about how to do things better,'' but stressed that water managers try to strike a difficult balance between public interests and environmental protection.

''What we saw in 2004 and 2005 is the reason we want to have a lower lake,'' Zediak said. ``As bad as they were, we would have been in really bad shape, knowing what we know about the dike.''

 

Q If the water shortage is such a crisis, why does the district keep issuing water-use permits for new homes, condos and golf courses that use more water?

A The majority of those permits come with a catch, said the district's Merriam. The new developments have to identify and tap an ''alternative'' supply, such as deeper aquifers, treated wastewater, desalination or other new sources.

''We're not letting anyone else stick any straws in the ground,'' he said. ``The future is only alternative.''

State water managers stress that they have no authority to ban new development, and until recently, the maxed-out water supply didn't play a big role in growth management. It wasn't until 2003, for instance, that the district began to require large farm operations to meter water use, a rule being slowly phased in with renewed permits.

But with both spiraling growth and Everglades restoration efforts demanding more water, the Legislature passed a law in 2005 that gives water managers considerably more clout in doling out water-use permits by essentially capping withdrawals from traditional sources, such as the Biscayne Aquifer.

Water managers say they have been weaning communities off overstressed natural sources for years -- particularly in Southwest Florida, where development has boomed in the face of steadily declining water tables in the area's Hawthorne and Sandstone aquifers.

Collier County is now a state leader in ''reclaiming'' wastewater, treating and recycling nearly every drop for irrigation or other uses. Miami-Dade, long a state laggard, committed to a $1.8 billion plan this year that will make it the largest re-user in the state over the next decade.

Although the regional population has swelled about 25 percent between 1995 and 2005, Merriam said water demand has not risen nearly as rapidly and water managers believe the system can produce more than enough to go around -- except during severe droughts.

''When we issue permits, we're issuing them against normal resource availability,'' he said. ``We don't issue for a drought.''

 

Q We've had two droughts in the span of six years. Is that normal or an effect of global warming or spiraling development in South Florida?

A Droughts frequently mark the 5,000-year-old calendar of the Everglades. But preparing for them is difficult, water managers say, because while droughts are regular events, they occur irregularly. ''Do droughts happen every five years?'' Merriam said. ``Do they happen every 15?''

He won't speculate on the possibility of global warming increasing extreme weather events. As for development, more condos and gated communities wouldn't have any effect on the weather.

But they might make the system more vulnerable, deepening and lengthening the effects of droughts when they do come.

 

Q The district is in charge of restoring the Everglades for the state of Florida, but is seeking a ''deviation'' that would allow it to pull more water from the marshes than normally allowed. Why?

A Tapping the Everglades, said Merriam, is only a last-ditch option to protect the drinking-water supply if coastal well fields need an emergency slug to beat back intruding saltwater.

If those wells get too salty, the utilities are not equipped to treat to drinking-water health standards. Once the wells are tainted, it can take years to flush them, or cost millions to add desalination equipment.

On Thursday, 13 environmental groups sent a letter urging the district to impose even tougher water-use restrictions, including limiting lawn watering to once a week and taking other conservation steps before lowering water levels in the Everglades.

Merriam said water managers are doing everything they can to protect the natural system, holding extra water in the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge to support a thriving rookery of ibises and wood storks. This month, the district also adopted a rule capping Everglades withdrawals at the current 500 million gallons a day.

The Corps granted a similar deviation in 2001 and the marshes rebounded, even producing record-setting wading-bird nesting in the wake of the drought.

Merriam said only a ''worst-case scenario'' would demand a deviation, but ``we want to make sure we have [federal approval] in our back pocket if we need it.''

 

Q How much rain would it take to end the drought?

A Starting from a regionwide deficit of 15-plus inches, it would take a lot more than normal. Water managers can't give a precise figure for a full recovery, but stress that it must come in the right places and at the right times, preferably not all at once.

A tropical deluge over Miami-Dade, for instance, helps keep lawns green locally, but most of that water winds up going out to sea through drainage canals, and what the ground can't quickly absorb evaporates.

''It's going to have to come over a long period of time,'' Merriam said. ``It's not going to be a rain over Dade County, and it's not going to be rainfall over Broward. It's rainfall over the entire system that recharges the Kissimmee basin and the lake.''

Even a good rainy season may not be enough.

 

Q You can walk through any neighborhood in the morning and find water-use violators. There's even one guy posting violations in Miami Beach on YouTube. How come water managers aren't doing more to nail them?

A The district focuses its monitoring energies on the biggest users -- utilities, farms, golf courses and other commercial operations -- and relies on local police or code enforcers to write up residential or other local violations.

Last week, for instance, water managers slapped 84 South Florida golf courses with $500 fines for failing to file required monthly pumping reports.

''We don't have enough staff to do house-by-house enforcement, nor do we have that level of authority,'' Merriam said.

The result is widely varying enforcement, with some communities making it more of a priority than others. Merriam believes that peer pressure and public education may be the best tools.

'Frankly, neighbors' word-of-mouth helps a lot,'' he said. ``Not turning people in, but telling them this is a time when we need to share adversity, when we need to be concerned.''

 

Q Are there any long-term answers?

A ''Restore the Everglades, that really is the solution,'' said Sara Fain of the National Parks Conservation Association.

Ultimately, the $12 billon state-federal effort to restore the natural flow of the River of Grass also could resolve South Florida's water concerns.

Critics, in fact, have long argued that it's too front-loaded with projects to boost the public supply. The district is constructing a series of massive reservoirs from western Pembroke Pines to western Palm Beach County.

Other projects still decades away are intended to help both the Everglades and South Florida cities by capturing and storing the staggering billions of gallons now carried out drainage canals to the ocean after every thunderstorm. ``If we can get this done,'' Fain said, ``we could significantly lessen the impacts of any particular dry year.''